Friday, March 29, 2013

Buckeyes who Bet

Alright, so you are an Ohio State fan. Bleed scarlet and gray.  You watch all the games, and have followed the Buckeyes all season.  And you made a wager last night that they would cover the 3 1/2 point spread in the game against Arizona.

How you feeling today?  Are you unequivocally happy?

Last night with the seconds running out Ohio State had the ball. The game was tied.  With two seconds remaining a player for Ohio State took a three point jump shot.

You bleed Scarlet and Gray.  Do you hope he makes the shot?   If the Buckeye makes the shot, Ohio State advances to the Elite 8 and will have to win only two more games to play for the championship on April 8th.  If he misses the shot the game goes into overtime and the Buckeyes might win or might lose.  Do you hope he makes the shot?

The uninitiated thinks this is a simple question.  You'd rather win than take a chance at an overtime game when you might lose.

Not so simple.  If you bet a wad on Ohio State, you will have mixed emotions when the winning shot is taken.  If the ball goes in, Ohio State wins, but you lose your money, since you have given up 3 1/2 and the final score will be Ohio State 73, Arizona 70 plus 3 1/2.  Probably could major in Ceramics and not Math and know you lose by half a point.

I would have loved to have been in Las Vegas last night staring at  a table of OSU bettors all dressed up in Scarlet and Gray when that final shot was taken.  I would have loved to see their kissers when the ball went in.  If you bet enough, I'll bet you were disappointed.   You would have hoped for a miss, the game to go into overtime, and a win by at least 4 in the overtime period.

I did okay on the predictions front last night.  I suggested Syracuse on the money line and the Cuse would have paid off nicely as they did what I thought they would.  Also, LaSalle turned into a pumpkin and lost to Wichita State as I predicted.  I thought Miami would win so I would have lost there, and had Ohio State but thought they'd cover.  So, given the money line on Syracuse, it would have been something of a success in terms of nickels and dimes.

For tonight, if you are in Nevada, are foolish enough to bet any substantive sum, and even more foolish to follow the advice from someone who does not wager much and is often incorrect, I offer this limited wisdom. I like Louisville to cover the 10 against Oregon, Kansas to easily cover the two against Michigan, and Michigan State to win on the money line against Duke.  I also think the Florida Gulf Coast bubble will burst.  However I do think they will get within the thirteen point spread.

So, I'd go with Florida Gulf Coast plus 13, Kansas and Louisville to cover, and Michigan to win outright.

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