In a February blog--2/14--to be exact I wrote what appears on the bottom of this post.
I enjoy watching the UConn women play, but last night I could not stay awake. I saw parts of the first half, woke up intermittently in the second, fighting for consciousness, but eventually succumbed.
I stumbled to the computer at about 5 and read that Mississippi State had won in overtime. I watched a clip which was incomprehensible. Connecticut had an opportunity to take the last shot and took a silly one with 12 seconds to go, giving Mississippi State the chance that they capitalized on. Can't explain why UConn took that shot. I have no idea of the context.
Tonight's games are a little tougher to predict. I think both Gonzaga and UNC will win and cover. I write this reluctantly, because I will be pulling for Oregon over UNC and had them to win it all in my brackets. For some reason I think UNC will get it together to win and cover the 4.5. I think South Carolina has exhausted all their fuel. It is a wonderful story but I think the Zags will win and cover the 7.
From February 14, 2017:
You read it here first. Connecticut will not win the championship this year. I don't know if South Carolina will win, but someone will. Last night the opponent was more skilled than UCONN. Very big on the inside. Deeper. Nevertheless Connecticut won.
Saturday, April 1, 2017
Monday, March 27, 2017
settled dust
Another very good-not perfect--day of prognosticating.
I went 1-1 on the money line. South Carolina did defeat Florida as predicted, but Kentucky lost in the last .3 of a second to UNC.
Against the spread, I went 2-0. South Carolina was a dog so since they won, they covered the spread. Kentucky lost by 2, but the spread was 2.5 so they covered by a half a point.
For the sweet sixteen weekend, I picked ten out of twelve correctly on the money line which includes four dogs. Against the spread I picked eight out of eleven with one push. If I had been in Vegas, and had put my money where my wisdom was I would have been the sort of winner who is thrilled in the short run, but eventually comes back to bet on dubious wisdom. This person walks around with a barrel around his naked body at the airport on subsequent trips.
The South Carolina, Florida game was one of the better college basketball games one will ever see. In the second half the defense was so good that neither team could hit a three. Great game.
I went 1-1 on the money line. South Carolina did defeat Florida as predicted, but Kentucky lost in the last .3 of a second to UNC.
Against the spread, I went 2-0. South Carolina was a dog so since they won, they covered the spread. Kentucky lost by 2, but the spread was 2.5 so they covered by a half a point.
For the sweet sixteen weekend, I picked ten out of twelve correctly on the money line which includes four dogs. Against the spread I picked eight out of eleven with one push. If I had been in Vegas, and had put my money where my wisdom was I would have been the sort of winner who is thrilled in the short run, but eventually comes back to bet on dubious wisdom. This person walks around with a barrel around his naked body at the airport on subsequent trips.
The South Carolina, Florida game was one of the better college basketball games one will ever see. In the second half the defense was so good that neither team could hit a three. Great game.
Sunday, March 26, 2017
Beat goes on--Sort of
So my undefeated streak came to an end last night, but nevertheless it was not a bad evening for prognosticating.
I went 1-1 on the Money Line. And 1-1 against the spread.
In the first game, Gonzaga did indeed beat Xavier on the money line. But I thought Xavier would cover and they did not.
In the second game, Oregon did indeed beat the spread, but they also won on the money line. If you read my blog from yesterday I thought Oregon was not smart enough to beat Kansas given a really dumb play they made against Michigan. I'll contend again that the way they played last night once they had the lead was not from the Mensa play book. And Oregon was fortunate that Kansas did not make some big shots that could have reversed the result. Still, Oregon, had some horses with Jordan Bell playing as good a defensive game as I have seen in years. In my brackets I have Oregon winning the whole shebang so some good news came from the victory.
One more day. Thus far, for the sweet sixteen weekend I am 9 for 10 against the money line--including three dogs. Against the spread I am 6 out of 9 with a push including the first Gonzaga loss where they missed covering by half a point. Of course, I wagered not a dime as I live outside the great state of Nevada, but had I put my money where my predictions were, I would maybe have been able to pay for the hotel room and flight.
Given my success these past days, run from today's wisdom.
I like both dogs on this final day of the sweet sixteen.
Kentucky will defeat UNC, so take them on the money line. Grab the 2.5 to enjoy victory against the spread. I saw UNC play live this year against Miami and they did not impress losing big against a team that got knocked out early in the tourney. Say what you want about Calipari, the guy has his teams ready to play. Memphis, UMass, now Kentucky, his teams dance for a while in the big dance. Go with Kentucky.
I like South Carolina against Florida on the money line and especially like them with the 3.5 against the spread. Florida won on Friday because of a last minute shot. South Carolina plays very good defense and has been impressive. Besides South Carolina is coached by a former assistant coach here at Northeastern.
I went 1-1 on the Money Line. And 1-1 against the spread.
In the first game, Gonzaga did indeed beat Xavier on the money line. But I thought Xavier would cover and they did not.
In the second game, Oregon did indeed beat the spread, but they also won on the money line. If you read my blog from yesterday I thought Oregon was not smart enough to beat Kansas given a really dumb play they made against Michigan. I'll contend again that the way they played last night once they had the lead was not from the Mensa play book. And Oregon was fortunate that Kansas did not make some big shots that could have reversed the result. Still, Oregon, had some horses with Jordan Bell playing as good a defensive game as I have seen in years. In my brackets I have Oregon winning the whole shebang so some good news came from the victory.
One more day. Thus far, for the sweet sixteen weekend I am 9 for 10 against the money line--including three dogs. Against the spread I am 6 out of 9 with a push including the first Gonzaga loss where they missed covering by half a point. Of course, I wagered not a dime as I live outside the great state of Nevada, but had I put my money where my predictions were, I would maybe have been able to pay for the hotel room and flight.
Given my success these past days, run from today's wisdom.
I like both dogs on this final day of the sweet sixteen.
Kentucky will defeat UNC, so take them on the money line. Grab the 2.5 to enjoy victory against the spread. I saw UNC play live this year against Miami and they did not impress losing big against a team that got knocked out early in the tourney. Say what you want about Calipari, the guy has his teams ready to play. Memphis, UMass, now Kentucky, his teams dance for a while in the big dance. Go with Kentucky.
I like South Carolina against Florida on the money line and especially like them with the 3.5 against the spread. Florida won on Friday because of a last minute shot. South Carolina plays very good defense and has been impressive. Besides South Carolina is coached by a former assistant coach here at Northeastern.
Saturday, March 25, 2017
Again--Just sayin'
Um, just saying-- once more.
Picked four for four last night on the money line. That is 8 for 8 in the sweet sixteen. This is the kind of thing that gets people to look up flight times to Las Vegas. Eight for Eight--three of which were dogs.
Against the money line last night I was two for three (with one push). So far in the sweet sixteen, the only major loss against the spread was the Butler game last night. Gonzaga had to cover 3 1/2 and only won by 3. I can cut myself some slack for the half a point.
One of the bad things about living on the east coast (in addition to snow on the ground in March) is that it is tough to stay awake for the night games. When the kid from Florida hit the three to beat Wisconsin, I had already been cutting zs for an hour. I woke up in my chair at 2, checked my ipad, and saw an e-mail which read, "I don't think I have ever seen a game like that." Quick I look up what transpired and see that Florida won at the buzzer. And, consequently, the kid who hit the shot made me a winner in all 8 games in the sweet sixteen round on the money line.
Today, take Gonzaga and Kansas on the money line. But neither will cover. Take Xavier with the 8 against Gonzaga. Take Oregon plus 7 against Kansas. I had picked Oregon to win it all, but they made such a bonehead play against Michigan at the end that could easily have cost them the game, so I don't think they are smart enough to beat Kansas on the money line--but do think they will cover. And I am not certain they won't prevail outright.
Now, the smartest bet is not to pay any attention to someone who is 8 for 8, because as the people who count shekels in Las Vegas know, eventually you are going to lose more than you win. So, you might be wise to bet the opposite of any of my suggestions.
Picked four for four last night on the money line. That is 8 for 8 in the sweet sixteen. This is the kind of thing that gets people to look up flight times to Las Vegas. Eight for Eight--three of which were dogs.
Against the money line last night I was two for three (with one push). So far in the sweet sixteen, the only major loss against the spread was the Butler game last night. Gonzaga had to cover 3 1/2 and only won by 3. I can cut myself some slack for the half a point.
One of the bad things about living on the east coast (in addition to snow on the ground in March) is that it is tough to stay awake for the night games. When the kid from Florida hit the three to beat Wisconsin, I had already been cutting zs for an hour. I woke up in my chair at 2, checked my ipad, and saw an e-mail which read, "I don't think I have ever seen a game like that." Quick I look up what transpired and see that Florida won at the buzzer. And, consequently, the kid who hit the shot made me a winner in all 8 games in the sweet sixteen round on the money line.
Today, take Gonzaga and Kansas on the money line. But neither will cover. Take Xavier with the 8 against Gonzaga. Take Oregon plus 7 against Kansas. I had picked Oregon to win it all, but they made such a bonehead play against Michigan at the end that could easily have cost them the game, so I don't think they are smart enough to beat Kansas on the money line--but do think they will cover. And I am not certain they won't prevail outright.
Now, the smartest bet is not to pay any attention to someone who is 8 for 8, because as the people who count shekels in Las Vegas know, eventually you are going to lose more than you win. So, you might be wise to bet the opposite of any of my suggestions.
Friday, March 24, 2017
Tonight
Against the spread
Take Butler plus 7.
Take Kentucky give up the 1.5
Take South Carolina plus 3.5.
Take Florida give up the 1.
Money line
UNC
Kentucky
South Carolina
Florida
Take Butler plus 7.
Take Kentucky give up the 1.5
Take South Carolina plus 3.5.
Take Florida give up the 1.
Money line
UNC
Kentucky
South Carolina
Florida
Just sayin'
If you read the final paragraph of the blog I wrote last night you will see that I picked all four games correctly on the money line--two of which were dogs. Also, I picked three out of four against the spread. The lone non winner was off by only a half of a point.
In case you missed it, I've copied last night's wisdom below.
Just saying.
Tonight: Take Oregon plus 1 over Michigan. Take Kansas -5 against Purdue. Take Xavier plus 7.5 over Arizona, Take Gonzaga -3.5 over West Virginia and run.
Thursday, March 23, 2017
Round 1
Today begins the second week of the tournament. This blog post is about last week reflecting how up to date I am at this moment.
I flew to Florida for the first weekend of the tournament. Since 2013, as opposed to going to Las Vegas to watch the games on tv, I have picked a venue and been a live spectator for one of the double headers. In 2013 Philadelphia, '14 Buffalo, '15 Columbus, '16 Brooklyn and this year Orlando.
The day started out gorgeous, but I missed the first half of the first game because the traffic around the AMWAY center was (predictably) congested. By the time I parked and walked and found my seat UNCW had squandered its lead to Virginia.
I was sitting on the mooooon for the end of the first game and beginning of the second. I bought my tickets on stubhub and they were pricey. For pricey I figured I would not have to buy oxygen. Very tiny players on the court. The good news was that from that vantage point you could really see the plays develop. I don't think I have ever sat that high for a basketball game before and it was an educational experience. I could see why coaches might sit in the upper deck to look at some plays and players.
Three law students from the University of Florida were my neighbors. Their school was playing in the second game of the doubleheader. My immediate neighbor hailed from New Jersey, a Yankee, down below the Mason Dixon line to learn the law. He sure knew his sports and it was a joy to converse with him about game histories.
UNCW was terrific but they could not defeat Virginia which just had better horses. Nevertheless UNCW worked hard up to the very end. Their reward is that their coach was snatched up by North Carolina State shortly after the defeat.
Florida had little difficulty taking care of East Tennessee State. The dogs in these first round games either come out like rabid pests intent to expend every ounce of their energy to upset a favorite, or like scaredy cats thinking despite how they posture that they have no business being on the court with an opponent. UNCW was like the former. ETSU looked like the latter. Florida is a good team, but ETSU was outmatched from the word go.
Each school gets about 200 seats for the games and these dedicated seats are terrific. I've bought directly from the schools in '15 and '16 when I had connections to the universities that were competing. This time I could not get a seat in these sections so that is why I found myself in the stratosphere with the law students. What happens, however, is that the spectators from the teams that play in the first game of the doubleheaders often leave when the second game of the doubleheader takes place. During the first half of the second game, I was able to see from my vantage point on the moon that the Virginia section had a vacant row. So I moved down for the second half of the Florida game. The seats for the second game were rich guy's chairs.
When I left the arena I found myself in a crowd comprised of those exiting the first doubleheader, and those waiting to get into the second doubleheader. Very crowded. The AMWAY center sits on Church Street. Walk down Church Street into town less than a 1/4 of a mile and you are on a road that was shut down--at least for this day. It is a row of taverns on each side complemented by a row of outdoor taverns right in the middle of the street. A church street it is not. The place was jumping. My notion of Orlando was that it was Disneyworld and that was it. This downtown area at least was quite tony. I went beyond it to get some coffee so that I would stay awake for the ride home. I found a Starbucks a few blocks away that was part of a very hoo hah hotel. I saw some beautiful city greenery and buildings. Maybe downtown Orlando begins and ends where I was, but it was impressive.
I woke up on day 2 feeling like a million bucks. I was energized after watching parts of the night games on tv and on having been a spectator in the first round. Went to a whirlpool, got some lox, eggs, and onions in a cafe (don't knock it if you haven't tried it). Later, for the first time in the 15 plus months since my hip replacement I took a tennis ball to a handball court and really tried to retrieve the balls. Once last July I swatted a few back and forth with a crony who was similarly impaired. This time I was really whacking the ball and retrieving. I got tired but the ability to move was encouraging.
Then, an injury I have dreaded most of my adult life seemed to occur. I went to hit a ball on what was going to be--really-my last exchange with the wall, and it felt like a brick was hurled on my calf. I turned around--no brick on my calf. Then I remembered that this sensation is what all those who have achilles tendon ruptures experience. Achilles tendon ruptures are terrible terrible injuries. Usually takes a year to recover. For someone like me who eats like a gourmand and exercises so that I maintain something of a svelte look, the prospect of being immobile for a year means I can take my 34" pants and toss them out the window. Plus I know I will be a sourpus and grouch.
When I got back to Boston on Monday I went to a doctor who, within seconds, told me I ruptured my Achilles tendon and would need a cast and be out of action from 6-18 months. He gave me a boot told me not to walk on it and to use crutches. I went for a second opinion. Number two said it could be more like weeks but he too thought it was an Achilles rupture of some sort. I went today for a third opinion. This guy, to my wary delight, said it was a calf rupture and I would be better in 12 weeks and can walk on the boot. So, who knows what it really is, but I am relieved to at least have one opinion that suggests that I will be able to get a cup of coffee from the kitchen without being an acrobat.
Before I got to Boston, but after the injury, I went on that Friday--the second day of the tournament-- to a sports bar. I was pretty glum as I was limping like an old man and looking like a limping old man. I figured going into a sports bar would buoy my spirits and besides watching the NCAA tournament for me is like doing research//my job.
I walk into the tavern and I see not sports zealots but face a wall of silly green--and realize that it may be the second day of the tournament but it is also St. Patty's Day. Just great. Dancing, drunken green all around me. A woman with green tentacles is giggling and has a t shirt that reads, "I can drink that bitch under the table." Who would buy such a shirt let alone wear it even on St. Patty's. Every one but a few of the patrons had some martian green costume and the place was hopping around. Some shmegeggi was also leading a Trivia Night contest. This was no real sports bar on 3/17. People in this joint would not have known a basketball from a tangerine.
Tonight: Take Oregon plus 1 over Michigan. Take Kansas -5 against Purdue. Take Xavier plus 7.5 over Arizona, Take Gonzaga -3.5 over West Virginia and run.
I flew to Florida for the first weekend of the tournament. Since 2013, as opposed to going to Las Vegas to watch the games on tv, I have picked a venue and been a live spectator for one of the double headers. In 2013 Philadelphia, '14 Buffalo, '15 Columbus, '16 Brooklyn and this year Orlando.
The day started out gorgeous, but I missed the first half of the first game because the traffic around the AMWAY center was (predictably) congested. By the time I parked and walked and found my seat UNCW had squandered its lead to Virginia.
I was sitting on the mooooon for the end of the first game and beginning of the second. I bought my tickets on stubhub and they were pricey. For pricey I figured I would not have to buy oxygen. Very tiny players on the court. The good news was that from that vantage point you could really see the plays develop. I don't think I have ever sat that high for a basketball game before and it was an educational experience. I could see why coaches might sit in the upper deck to look at some plays and players.
Three law students from the University of Florida were my neighbors. Their school was playing in the second game of the doubleheader. My immediate neighbor hailed from New Jersey, a Yankee, down below the Mason Dixon line to learn the law. He sure knew his sports and it was a joy to converse with him about game histories.
UNCW was terrific but they could not defeat Virginia which just had better horses. Nevertheless UNCW worked hard up to the very end. Their reward is that their coach was snatched up by North Carolina State shortly after the defeat.
Florida had little difficulty taking care of East Tennessee State. The dogs in these first round games either come out like rabid pests intent to expend every ounce of their energy to upset a favorite, or like scaredy cats thinking despite how they posture that they have no business being on the court with an opponent. UNCW was like the former. ETSU looked like the latter. Florida is a good team, but ETSU was outmatched from the word go.
Each school gets about 200 seats for the games and these dedicated seats are terrific. I've bought directly from the schools in '15 and '16 when I had connections to the universities that were competing. This time I could not get a seat in these sections so that is why I found myself in the stratosphere with the law students. What happens, however, is that the spectators from the teams that play in the first game of the doubleheaders often leave when the second game of the doubleheader takes place. During the first half of the second game, I was able to see from my vantage point on the moon that the Virginia section had a vacant row. So I moved down for the second half of the Florida game. The seats for the second game were rich guy's chairs.
When I left the arena I found myself in a crowd comprised of those exiting the first doubleheader, and those waiting to get into the second doubleheader. Very crowded. The AMWAY center sits on Church Street. Walk down Church Street into town less than a 1/4 of a mile and you are on a road that was shut down--at least for this day. It is a row of taverns on each side complemented by a row of outdoor taverns right in the middle of the street. A church street it is not. The place was jumping. My notion of Orlando was that it was Disneyworld and that was it. This downtown area at least was quite tony. I went beyond it to get some coffee so that I would stay awake for the ride home. I found a Starbucks a few blocks away that was part of a very hoo hah hotel. I saw some beautiful city greenery and buildings. Maybe downtown Orlando begins and ends where I was, but it was impressive.
I woke up on day 2 feeling like a million bucks. I was energized after watching parts of the night games on tv and on having been a spectator in the first round. Went to a whirlpool, got some lox, eggs, and onions in a cafe (don't knock it if you haven't tried it). Later, for the first time in the 15 plus months since my hip replacement I took a tennis ball to a handball court and really tried to retrieve the balls. Once last July I swatted a few back and forth with a crony who was similarly impaired. This time I was really whacking the ball and retrieving. I got tired but the ability to move was encouraging.
Then, an injury I have dreaded most of my adult life seemed to occur. I went to hit a ball on what was going to be--really-my last exchange with the wall, and it felt like a brick was hurled on my calf. I turned around--no brick on my calf. Then I remembered that this sensation is what all those who have achilles tendon ruptures experience. Achilles tendon ruptures are terrible terrible injuries. Usually takes a year to recover. For someone like me who eats like a gourmand and exercises so that I maintain something of a svelte look, the prospect of being immobile for a year means I can take my 34" pants and toss them out the window. Plus I know I will be a sourpus and grouch.
When I got back to Boston on Monday I went to a doctor who, within seconds, told me I ruptured my Achilles tendon and would need a cast and be out of action from 6-18 months. He gave me a boot told me not to walk on it and to use crutches. I went for a second opinion. Number two said it could be more like weeks but he too thought it was an Achilles rupture of some sort. I went today for a third opinion. This guy, to my wary delight, said it was a calf rupture and I would be better in 12 weeks and can walk on the boot. So, who knows what it really is, but I am relieved to at least have one opinion that suggests that I will be able to get a cup of coffee from the kitchen without being an acrobat.
Before I got to Boston, but after the injury, I went on that Friday--the second day of the tournament-- to a sports bar. I was pretty glum as I was limping like an old man and looking like a limping old man. I figured going into a sports bar would buoy my spirits and besides watching the NCAA tournament for me is like doing research//my job.
I walk into the tavern and I see not sports zealots but face a wall of silly green--and realize that it may be the second day of the tournament but it is also St. Patty's Day. Just great. Dancing, drunken green all around me. A woman with green tentacles is giggling and has a t shirt that reads, "I can drink that bitch under the table." Who would buy such a shirt let alone wear it even on St. Patty's. Every one but a few of the patrons had some martian green costume and the place was hopping around. Some shmegeggi was also leading a Trivia Night contest. This was no real sports bar on 3/17. People in this joint would not have known a basketball from a tangerine.
Tonight: Take Oregon plus 1 over Michigan. Take Kansas -5 against Purdue. Take Xavier plus 7.5 over Arizona, Take Gonzaga -3.5 over West Virginia and run.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
