Monday, November 7, 2016


I think Hillary Clinton will win the election tomorrow with somewhere between 274 and 340 electoral votes. Best guess is 307.  Earlier today I counted up and thought it was not impossible to get as high as 411. But best guess is 307.  Could she lose? Yes.  If she loses either Michigan and Pennsylvania, and he wins all those states that are very close: Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire, Trump will become President elect.  Don't think it will happen.  I hope not.

What will occur if I am correct and Trump loses?  My feeling is different from other persons who have opined on this question.  I do not think the Republican party will lash out and scream that the election was rigged, nor do I see any significant outbreak from the racists who have supported him.  I think that the Republican party members for the most part will distance themselves from Trump and his more vocal supporters like someone running from a foul smell.  Almost immediately, even those who offered tepid support, will want to behave like they never heard of the guy or his beliefs. I read that a Republican strategist commented recently that Trump brought minority voters to the Democrats in a way the Democrats never could have.  The GOP must be furious that Trump has made electing Republicans more difficult.  Every irresponsible quip that Trump uttered will be disavowed by GOPers. The Republican party will do to Trump what most people do to losers--shun him.  I believe you will see Democrats and Republicans united in one thing--condemnation. I would not be surprised to hear of bipartisan support for prosecuting Trump for the Trump University sham as well as tax evasion.  Republicans will try to scrape Trump off like someone attempting to get manure off their shoes.  I don't believe there will be a honeymoon for Clinton, but talk of jail and impeachment will be muted.

What will happen if I am incorrect and Hillary loses?  I will not be surprised if because of tax evasion and Trump University, he becomes the first president ever to be impeached and convicted. (Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were both acquitted.  The House Judiciary Committee voted to recommend impeachment for Nixon, but he resigned before the House as a whole could vote to impeach. Consequently, Nixon was never actually impeached).  I see in Trump's early days an uncomfortable and superficial coming together of the GOP.  It will be short lived. Trump will almost immediately attempt to punish those who supported him reluctantly.  Consequently, he will gain enemies among the GOP who will conspire to get him out of office.  The lone positive of a Trump presidency would be to watch how he reacts to the incessant criticism and pressures of that office coming to him from both parties, overseas, the press, and his own supporters who will be upset when he can not implement racist legislation.

Either way the Trump brand is forever tarnished. Isn't it remarkable that with all of the Trump properties his "victory gathering" on Tuesday night is to be held at an okay, but nothing special, Sheraton only a few blocks from Trump Tower.

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