Sunday, February 5, 2017

Super bowl prediction

It is always difficult to predict sports outcomes when you have a rooting interest in one of the contestants.  It's analogous to decisions made in the organization when you try to be dispassionate about, say, two prospective candidates but you kind of liked one going into the competition.

That as preface, I like the Patriots in today's game. I'd like them a whole lot better if neither the quarterback, owner, or coach had any apparent friendship with our solipsistic chief executive.  But, nevertheless, I think the Patriots will prevail.


  • The Patriots have been there. The coaching staff is less likely to get weak kneed because of the moment. Similarly Brady has been there. Each game is different but some of the heebie jeebies will not surface.  Edelman, Amendola, Ryan, McCourtney, Butler, Gostkowski, and several others all played in the game two years ago. Can they still be nervous? Of course.  Can someone else who did not play in the superbowl make a big error? Absolutely.  But compared with the opponent the Pats have more experience.
  • Brady probably does not need a whole lot of incentive, but if he needed any more, he received it when it was announced last night that Matt Ryan, the quarterback for the Falcons (as opposed to Logan Ryan mentioned in the first bullet) was named the league MVP.
  • Quinn may be an excellent coach. Belichick is at least his match, and probably better.  This is his tenth superbowl. Ten.  He began coaching in the mid seventies as an assistant's assistant.  So, in say the forty years since he started, he's been either a head coach or a defensive coordinator in 25 percent of the super bowl games.  I think Belichick will be able to come up with a formula that will defuse the high powered Falcons offense.
  • The Falcons played like the best of all time the last two weeks. However, they lost 5 games this year.  They must not be that consistent.  The Patriots lost twice. Once when a third string quarterback with a damaged thumb was playing. Once in the last seconds.  I think the Patriots played a weaker schedule and only faced a few quarterbacks that were in the top tier, but still they only lost two games.
  • Patriots 27-Atlanta 23.
All these bullets may mean nothing.  The Pats could fumble the opening kick-off. Brady could get injured in the first quarter.  Ryan could prove to be very worthy of the honor.

It should be fun.  I will revert to being seven years old in a few hours.

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