Johnny Football

I read today that Johnny Manziel, nicknamed Johnny Football, has decided to enter the NFL draft. Manziel as a freshman impressed so many with his skills that he earned his sobriquet and also the Heisman. This year, despite summer activity reflecting sophomoric behavior, Manziel continued to excel on the field.

So now after two years of college football he has decided to play professionally. Will he be successful?

My vote is no.  Quarterback is a position that changes when one goes from college to the pros.  Highly touted college quarterbacks often do not do well as professionals.  Matt Leinart for one, Ryan Leaf another.  If you want to go back a ways Steve Spurrier is a third.  And on the other hand, less heralded college quarterbacks become stars in the pros--Tom Brady and Johnny Unitas for examples.

The asset of a scrambler and playmaker in college is not always an asset in the professional ranks.  Could anyone have demonstrated greater skill than Vince Young in the USC-Texas championship game of 2006. He was virtually unstoppable as a passer and runner. He had one good year professionally and now is out of the league.  Andre Ware and Tim Tebow are two other Heisman trophy winners who did not have much in the way of professional careers.

The most important attributes for an NFL quarterback are intelligence, backbone, maturity, and industry.  Raw skill is a limited value. Pat Sullivan was a Heisman trophy winner with a great arm. Never had much of a career.  Drew Bledsoe could throw footballs like darts. Ty Detmer wowed all with his ability to make something out of nothing for BYU.  Yet neither Bledsoe or Detmer made much of a dent as a professional.

I don't see Manziel having the goods to make it as a pro for any extended period of time. Leaving college early may earn him some money, but I think it will prove to be a mistake. If he were to stay in school for a while he might develop the maturity of a Peyton Manning or Brady and that is what could make him great.